Author: G.V. Pavan Kumar

Our world is a place with complex ideas superimposed on people with ever-changing attention. Complex ideas are complex because they depend on multiple parameters. If something changes in the world, then that change can occur due to multiple reasons.

Unlike a carefully designed physics experiment, there are too many ‘hidden variables’ in human life and behavior, especially when they act collectively. In such a situation, it is pertinent to search for models to understand the complex world. Models, by definition, capture the essence of a problem and do not represent the complete system. They are like maps, zoomed out, but very useful if you know their limitations. I keep searching for mental models that will help me understand the complex world in which I live, interact, and comprehend.

Among many models, one of them that I use extensively is the follow-the-money model. This model explains some complex processes in a world where one does not have complete information about a problem. 

Take, for example, the incentives to choose a research project. This is a task that as scientists, we need to do very often. In the process of choosing a project to work on, researchers have to factor in the possibility of that research being funded prior to the start of the project. This is critical for scientific research that is dependent on infrastructure, such as experimental sciences, including physics, chemistry, and biology. Inherently, as researchers, we tend to pick a topic that is at the interface of personal interest, competence, relevance, and financial viability.

The viability is an important element because sustained funding plays a critical role in our ability to address all the contours of a research project. Thus, as scientists, we need to follow the money and ask ourselves how our research can be adapted to the financial incentives that a society creates. A case in point is research areas such as AI, where many people are aware of its potential and, hence, support from society and an opportunity to utilize the available incentive.

It is important for the public to be aware of this aspect of research where the financial incentive to execute a project plays a role in the choice of the project itself. The downstream of this incentive is the opportunity to employ more people. This means large funding projects and programs attract more researchers. More people in the research area generate more data, and more data, hopefully, will result in more knowledge in the chosen research area. This shows how financial incentives play a critical role in propelling a research area. In that sense, the ‘follow the money’ model has a direct correlation with more researchers flocking towards a research area.

The downside of this way of functioning is that it skews people towards certain areas of research at the cost of another research area which may not find financial support from the society. This is a topic that is generally not discussed in science classes, especially at the undergraduate and research level but I think we should discuss with students about this asymmetry as their futures are dependent on financial support that they can garner.

Broadening the scope further, the ‘follow the money’ model is useful to understand why a certain global trend rises or falls. A contemporary global upheaval is the situation of war in Ukraine and Gaza. At first sight, it looks like these wars are based on ideologies, but a closer look reveals that these wars cannot be fought without financial support. Such underpinning of the money running the war reveals patterns in geopolitics that are otherwise not easy to grasp.

Ideologies have the power to act as vehicles of human change, but these vehicles cannot be propelled without the metaphorical fuel – that is, money. The ‘follow-the-money’ model can show some implicit motivation and showcase how ideologies can be used as trojan horses to gain financial superiority either through captured resources or through showcasing the ability to capture that resource. Following money is also a very powerful and useful model for understanding many cultural, sociological and political evolution, even in a complex country like India and other South Asian countries. I leave it as an intellectual assignment for people who want to explore it 😊. You will be surprised how effective it can be in explaining many complex issues, provided we know the limitations of the model. 

As I mentioned earlier, a model is like a map. It is limited by resolution, the dimension and the viewpoint. But they are useful for navigating a complex world.