Many of the Nobel winners in science deserve the prize they get, but there are many deserving who do not make the list for various reasons, including sociology, geography & financial support. Using the Nobel prize as a benchmark of progress may lead to errors in the judgment of a country.
A better way to judge is to ask: how are science and technology in a country making lives better for the people of the country & the world? A better life includes both intellectual & material aspects. We, in India & the global south, can make progress if scientific thinking becomes prevalent in the everyday discourse of society, from family conversations to political debates. And prizes, by design, are exclusive. It is easier to exclude a country that is not scientific as no one cares in such a situation.
Scientific progress in a society is generally bottom-up. We have a large population of young people who should be more scientific in their worldview. If we have a large, scientifically oriented population, science and technological achievements become proportional.
If science-based intellectual & material progress is achieved, prizes will follow. But a Nobel should not be our primary goal. Better lives & better minds should be.
Everything flows from there.
VISMAYA - History & Philosophy of Physics 